Rick Warren hosts Obama, McCain

I caught most of the interviews last night between Rick Warren of Saddleback and Obama and McCain. I think how you respond to the debate depends a lot on your age and, obviously, your political positions.

But let me suggest broadly how people would respond based on their age, trying to remove the political positions part from the equation. In this case, I think how you respond breaks around 40-45 years old.

Those older than 40-45, like Pat Buchanan afterwards, see McCain as a hands down winner. (Of course Buchanan has become a spin meister too.) McCain had clear cut answers, which this crowd sees as leadership. He decisively jumped in even before Warren could get the questions out. He was confident, unlike Obama, who hemmed and hawed and, in Buchanan's mind, surprisingly didn't seem to know Theology 101.

Those younger than 40 might see it differently. McCain wouldn't have even needed to show up because his answers were so scripted to the party line, especially the sterotyped evangelical party line, that anyone could have given them for him. He had the answers memorized like an old time school boy who can hardly wait to get the question right. Oo, oo, can I tell you the right answer to that question too, now, or do I have to wait.

Obama, on the other hand, gave his real answers in the face of a hostile audience. He tried to find common ground with an opposing position. He was authentic, not canned. He gave realistic answers rather than the kinds of dreamy idealistic ones that got us into the Iraq War (you defeat evil--yeah, that's worked for us, hasn't it).

Enough of the Pastor Stuff on Both Sides...

I've had enough of the "death by association" pastor stuff. McCain obviously doesn't agree with Hagee on everything and Hagee doesn't agree with McCain on everything. I pronounce anyone "dumber than a door knob" who thinks that the gyrations of an obscure pastor hammin' it up for a crowd that wants to see him perform must obviously be exactly what Senator Obama thinks.

This is the height of illogic, it's not even worthy to be called the ad hominem fallacy because it's attacking Obama through the back door. I guess you would call it the circumstantial fallacy, attacking the circumstances of the person to smear the person's ideas? Let's come up with a new name, "Smearing someone by finding anything even loosely associated with them that we don't like" fallacy.

I once had liver. You don't like liver. Ah, logically, then, you must not like me.

Come on--are we really this stupid in America??? Obama wasn't there. Obama didn't say these things. How many people agree with everything their pastor says? How many people go to church because of the preaching?

Good grief. If the American people and the media (especially FOX news) are this stupid and unable to reason like homo sapiens, then there's no hope for our future. We're no better thinkers than your garden variety slug.

We will no doubt be taken over in the next 100 years by some other nation smarter than we are.

Bitter Americans

"It's not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."

Ok, is it just me or is Obama getting a lot of flack for saying something that's true? And is it me or is Hillary Clinton the biggest hypocrite in the world... since she and Bill no doubt say the same thing to each other in private (assuming they actually talk)--except they aren't empathizing but calling smalltown USA stupid?

This is Sociology 101.

Kerry on Obama's Experience--MSNBC Interview

And then there were three...

Looks like we're down to McCain, Obama, and Clinton. I don't think it's possible for McCain to win against Obama, although he might against Clinton. Hard for me to see Clinton winning over Obama, but she's not to be underestimated. So I'm sticking by the predictions I made way back after Iowa, that Obama will ultimately win against McCain.

I'll confess that I'm getting the same vibe from the Clinton campaign that I had from Bill back in the 90's--"Slick Hilly." I guess the white male vote for Hilary breaks at 44 years old right now--white men over 44 go for her, younger for Obama. HA! I'm 41 and have liked her less and less with each passing bump in the road.

I'm getting that same vibe I've always got from her and her husband--manipulation. Whatever you think of Obama's views, he and McCain have seemed to me to run clean campaigns. My impression from her--she'll do whatever it takes and whoever she needs to run over to get elected.

My thought--this is Hillary's last chance. The boomer demographic barely continues to hold power. Next election the next generation will be in full control, and they can smell a ruse a mile away.

Clintons, rest in peace. You'll never go back to the White House.

FOX's Republican Debate in New Hampshire

I was helping my children get to sleep tonight when by chance or design I found myself watching the Republican debate in New Hampshire. I apparently missed the beginning, which will become significant later.

Here's my run down:

1. I thought McCain did well. I would pick him as the winner from my perspective, although admittedly my attention was sometimes divided. I also think that he and Thompson are the most transparent in their positions. Everyone else has flip flopped on something at one time or another.

2. I seemed to have missed any brilliance from Mit Romney. I'll confess up front that I don't like him. It has nothing to do with him being a Mormon. In fact, if anything he's lost points with me for acting like his faith doesn't encompass his whole life. It seems to me that means he's more serious about winning an election than about his faith, which means his faith isn't much of a faith.

Frankly, he comes off to me as an artificial pretty boy. I can't see people under 40 voting for him. For some strange reason, older folk can't seem to spot hypocrites as easily as the younger crowd. I'm not surprised that FOX seems to be skewing things in his direction. More on that to come...

3. Huckabee apparently did worse than I saw--or not. The New Hamphire focus group FOX set up hated him, maybe a little too much. Apparently he jumbled the first question. Did anyone see that? I didn't notice any incredible screw up.

In fact, to get a little ahead of myself, the reaction of the FOX focus group was so overwhelmingly in favor of Romney and overwhelmingly against Huckabee that I smelt a rat. I noted in my previous post that FOX was anti-Huckabee in its coverage and commentary (so was MSNBC). So the commentary was again tonight. In fact, one of FOX's commentators had to make a full disclosure that she was connected to the Romney campaign.

I won't convince the unconvinced, but in my opinion FOX is the least objective of all the networks. Let no one think that these people are Christian conservatives. They're political and economic conservatives. Such people are far more likely to worship the almighty dollar than the Almighty God. Such people are utilitarians and egoists, not moral absolutists. Unfortunately, I don't think a lot of Christian conservatives can tell the difference.

Huckabee didn't do badly tonight in the parts I saw. FOX just doesn't like him and uses its power to its own ideological ends. Mind you, I'm not endorsing anyone here. I'm just pointing out to Christian conservatives that Huckabee is the conservative Christian horse in this race and FOX doesn't like him at all. Recognize that FOX's conservatism is not the same as Christian conservatism.

4. And for those who might question this, did you know that FOX did not allow Ron Paul to debate tonight? The New Hampshire Republican party backed out of supporting the debate for this reason. I hope a bunch of angry NH Republicans vote for Ron Paul in the caucuses just to stick it to the FOX News monster. Teach them a lesson.

5. Guliani and Thompson were on the margins of the debate. FOX at least put it right when it saw Guliani's hanging off the side of the table as symbolic of his marginalization in the NH race.

Thompson's a nice guy and his answers aren't bad. It just always seems like he's sitting on the side, not really in the center of the action. He doesn't have spiz.

Well, I thought they were all civil and didn't see a knock-down winner, but all in all thought McCain did the best. Some of that no doubt has to do with positions he took. And so to be fair to FOX, they surely agree most with Romney.

Then again, I wonder if he's donating money to them on some level. I swear, almost everyone in the NH FOX focus group became a convinced Romney supporter and all of them thought Huckabee was trash. This group seemed to have the attitude as if to say, "We're smarter than the stupid Christians in Iowa. You'll never catch one of us voting for a Huckabee." The thought struck me, "I wonder if they've stacked this deck!"

No matter. Romney will not be on the Republican ticket, and Obama will beat whoever is. That's a prediction, not an endorsement.

Is McCain Insane?

No, I don't think he is, even though he has just endorsed Bush's surge.

I thought that McCain's support of Bush's policy in Iraq might actually be fatal to his presidential bid. He can't do any more damage there... BUT he can try to turn it into a strength. One of Hilary's big problems is her previous support for the war. She could stand by her vote to keep from looking like Kerry, but it's not clear how profitable that will make her with her party.

It's different with McCain. Standing firm on the war for him might just strengthen his base enough to win him the Republican primaries.

Some might be surprised to know that I have never been sure what to make of this surge. I don't trust Bush's foreign policy or military judgment any further than I can throw him. But I'm not sure that setting timetables for withdrawal is the right tactic either.

Long and short--I think McCain would be an infinitely better president than Bush. I don't think he would have gone to war with Iraq, if he had been in the hot seat at the time. And I think that regardless of what he might feel he has to say at this point of the game.