Iran, hostages, and such

It's been over a week since Iran seized, what is it, 12? British soldiers off a ship Iran claims was in their waters. I am of course disinclined to believe them. The news is saying that they actually revised the coordinates they gave first, after realizing that the first coordinates they gave were actually in Iraqi rather than Iranian waters! Oops! It's frustrating to be so certain that they are lying through their teeth... knowing that they are beaming propagandistic sound bites to their people to where they all are sure that the British (which of course mindlessly blurs into Americans) are lying.

Of course to be objective we can't rule out the possibility that the British government might lie. From all appearances, the British appear to have done an excellent job in Basra.

So far, the public statements of the British have seemed unprovocative. I have admired them for that. The frontal approach doesn't give the Iranians a way out with their honor intact, and honor/shame cultures often prefer to die than be shamed.

In comes Bush today. I don't know how he said it, but the news at least has reported a somewhat ultimatum-ish statement by him. Of course none of us knows what is going on behind the scenes, but I hope the British government was okay with it. Maybe they wanted him to do it.

But I doubt anyone will get the Iranians to admit they made a mistake unless they can do it and keep face. The most likely peaceful solution is to find a way for them to release the prisoners without admitting they did wrong or made a mistake, yet without the British backing off from the truth either.

Unless, of course, one or both sides wants a war!

Deeply Alarmed at Iran

I get more and more alarmed about Iran. Here is a country with many things I like. It's intelligensia seems really smart and many of this "class" seem sympathetic to Western culture. (we might have said similar things about some Iraqis before the war).

But one of the secondary consequences of our invasion of Iraq, I believe, was the election of Ahmadinejad, the empowerment of the extreme right. See http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17327091/

The Bush administration does not have a good enough record with the truth about these things for me to trust them. But Ahmadinejad himself says enough that I don't need to trust the Bush administration to see this man as a threat.

So just when I have gotten the Arabic letters down, now I have to start on Farsi. Actually, I think it might be fun to take a stab at Farsi. The letters are very similar to Arabic (with a few predictable extras if you know Sanskrit), but it's an Indo-European language related to Sanskrit (ancient Indian language). Since I took two semesters of Sanskrit at the University of Kentucky and know how to read several other Indo-European languages, Farsi might actually be fun!

IAEA and the House Intelligence Committee

There was something strangely familiar today when the IAEA strongly disagreed with the report of the House Intelligence committee on the state of Iran's nuclear program. Basically the IAEA says Iran isn't nearly as far along as the House committee thinks it is.

I remember this one. Remember when we were "poo poo-ing" Germany for saying things like "I just don't see the evidence for WMD in Iraq." I remember what I thought at the time: "Of course there are WMD in Iraq." We made fun of the Germans and especially the French. Now, mind you, maybe the French did have personal interests in Iraq that made them less than objective. But what no one seems to remember--and what you will never hear on Fox News--is that the French, Germans, and Russians were right!

Sure the Russians and French may have had ulterior motives, but their arguments against us that we had not made the case for WMD turned out to be right!!!! We should really be sheepishly embarrassed for not having listened to them. But we've conveniently forgotten how this all came down.

Bush barrelled ahead--he was like the child that ignores the parent's advice thinking it will all turn out okay. And then it doesn't. It messes up just like the parent told the child it might. That's what happened in Iraq and we're too forgetful to remember that all their predictions came true!!!

But this post was meant to be about Iran. Once again, I am asked to make a choice on who I will trust. I trusted Bush last time over Europe and the UN, and it turned out that I made the wrong decision. So I am not going to trust the House intelligence committee this time on Iran. Could the IAEA be lying to try to keep the US from doing something rash again? Sure. But fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. You're going to have to over prove something like this to me this time. You've blown the trust factor.

This is a big problem for the Bush administration with people like me. All along they have asked us to trust them. Take the spying on us and the secret prisons and Guantanamo. They ask us to trust them to do the right thing. If we tell you everything we're doing, it will compromise American security. Maybe. But you've long since lost my trust.